Step outside and you’ll feel it. The air’s thick this morning, 78 at 9:40 with the humidity up near 60 percent and the dew point sitting at 62. A week ago that dew point was in the low 50s, so the monsoon has clearly circled back.

The ground agrees. My soil moisture reading jumped to 84 percent, which means we caught and keeping the real rain in the last day or two, even though the gauge is dry so far today.

Right now it’s calm and quiet. Barometer’s steady at 30.17, and the air is clean again (PM2.5 down to 2, that smoke haze is long gone). The sun’s working through a soft morning sky.

Here’s how I see the day. All this moisture plus the August sun is storm fuel. Look for clouds to build over the Mogollon Rim by early afternoon, and I’d put good odds on a cell or two drifting off it toward us after 3 or 4 o’clock. The last strike my sensor caught was only about 4 miles out, so the storms aren’t far.

If one reaches us, expect the usual monsoon package: a fast wind shift, gusty outflow, a burst of heavy rain, and lightning that means business. Give it 20 or 30 minutes and it usually rolls on through.

High around 90, maybe upper 80s if the clouds win early. Tonight stays muggy, low near 68.

Written off the station a little before 10am, with the sky still making up its mind. I’ll check tomorrow on how the afternoon actually played out.